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Analyst upgrades:

• Morgan Stanley upgraded CNOOC Ltd (NYSE: CEO) to Equal Weight from Underweight to reflect higher crude oil price estimates.
  
• Goldman upgraded VMware (NYSE: VMW) to Conviction Buy from Neutral and raised its target to $29 from $27 following positive checks that indicate strong business actively. The analyst expects VMW's revenue growth to be up 9% in 2009 vs. expectations for overall IT spending to be down.
  
• UBS upgraded ON Semiconductor (NASDAQ: ONNN) to Buy from Neutral and raised its target to $5 from $3.80 based on positive Asia checks that indicate an improving demand outlook and that the company could beat near-term expectations.
• Vodafone (NYSE: VOD) was lifted to Buy from Neutral at Goldman and to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.
  
• Ashland (NYSE: ASH) was raised to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.

Analyst upgrades:

• UBS upgraded Palm, Inc. (NASDAQ: PALM) to neutral from sell and placed a short-term buy rating on shares based on the new Palm Pre. The firm raised its target to $6.50 from $1.35.
  
• UBS upgraded Silver Wheaton Corp. (NYSE: SLW) to Buy from Neutral and raised its target to $7.50 from $5.75 based on its improved view of the company's credit risk.
• Canaccord upgraded Elan PLC (NYSE: ELN) to Buy from Sell and raised its target to $10.87 from $6.90, citing Tysabri potential.
• Brandywine Realty (NYSE: BDN) and Boston Properties (NYSE: BXP) were upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.
• Raytheon (NYSE: RTN) and L-3 Comm (NYSE: LLL) were raised to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.

I made it through mid-year of tracking my 2008 picks from last December and then -- Wham! -- I went from a slight advantage to being humbled badly by the market. However difficult it is to display your failings, once again I will share all of the horrors since I posted the original story Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008.

The master is still the master, Warren Buffett and his life's work Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) beat me easily as well as the three indices I tracked.

For the most part, unless you started shorting stocks, there was no place to hide and most of my picks were big losers. There were two that beat Buffett and the market. The defense sector was the defensive sector it was supposed to be with Raytheon Company (NYSE: RTN) doing well on a relative scale. The other place you could have a morsel of stability was utilities and Huaneng Power International (ADR) (NYSE: HNP) lost less but not by much.

One of the things that really helps the U.S. balance of trade is weapons sales. In a recession, perhaps they should be encouraged more.

According to Reuters, Iran's Gulf neighbor, the United Arab Emirates, has signed a deal worth $3.3 billion to buy missiles from U.S. firm Raytheon (NYSE: RTN).

The Census Bureau reports that the October balance of trade was a negative $57 billion. A lot of that could be made up by selling missiles, tanks, rifles, and war planes. The Department of Defense has to approve most of the sales, but perhaps it should be annexed to the Department of the Treasury, at least until the recession is over. Some of the countries where a lot of sales are prohibited, like North Korea, could be added to the "OK to export weapons" list?

In September, The New York Times reported that "From tanks, helicopters and fighter jets to missiles, remotely piloted aircraft and even warships, the Department of Defense has agreed so far this fiscal year to sell or transfer more than $32 billion in weapons and other military equipment to foreign governments, compared with $12 billion in 2005." Up that number to $100 billion and think of the jobs it would create.

Weapons sales are not on the new Obama list of plans to create 2.5 million jobs by spending $800 billion. And, selling weapons does not cost the government at dime.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

You can't put one in your holster yet, but they have done it. The Raytheon Company (NYSE: RTN) has brought H. G. Wells' science fiction invention of the ray gun to reality as an advanced missile defense system.

The first serious battlefield ray gun is now being deployed. And the next generation, now in the laboratory, is coming soon.

It was last July when I posted Chasing Value: Raytheon says 'Game on' highlighting the stock. It was one of this year's picks, and while down, it has out performed the market. I liked it last year, I liked it mid-year and I still like it. The company is a leader in missile defense systems and civilian airport radar and monitoring systems.

"As my high school football coach always quipped, 'Offense may win fans, but defense wins games,'" says leading growth stock expert Louis Basenese.

Here, the Oxford Club associate investment director takes a look at his three favorite defense stocks, noting, "When it comes to investing in the current environment, I'm convinced that you can't go wrong with this trio of companies."

"In my view, this sector willl never fall out of favor. The recent development with Russia serves to underscore another point I've been making for years. We always have to be prepared.

"Or, put another way, there will never be a good time for defense cuts, lest we want to leave our country vulnerable.Add it all up, and we can expect defense companies to enjoy steady demand. Even in the face of a recession.

"As the CEO of Rockwell notes, there has been absolutely no fallout in the defense industry as a result of the worldwide credit meltdown or other economic woes. So here's a quick run-down on the three defense companies we prefer for investors.

We have finally reached a point where all denial is gone and we are ready to admit the error of our ways. Sure, there were plenty of folks ringing the alarm bells years ago, but universal acceptance of the fundamental economic calamity that faces us from every corner of the world, and every person with two cents to rub together, has just now taken hold.

I wrote quite some time ago that the turning point in the economy cannot come about until President Bush admits there is a problem and that he will be the last person to do so. While I do not have a high opinion of President Bush, the facts speak for themselves as I wrote one year ago. (See Is Bush giving the country away without knowing it?)

The storm is not over, but we are coming to grips with it at very great expense. Admitting our errors is only the start; now we will have to spend years fixing problems and making many compromises. Unfortunately many people may lose their homes, jobs or both before we see significant growth.

Desperate Investors Making Bad Moves
There is no shortage of bone-headed moves that panicky investors are considering -- requiring their advisers to make timely interventions. The financial distress caused by the stock market's wild gyrations has investors itching to DO SOMETHING and many times it is the wrong thing.
http://money.aol.com/news/articles/_a/bbdp/desperate-investors-making-bad-moves/198748

7 Stocks With Improving Profit Margins
Arch Coal, Darling International, Guess?, Jos. A Bank Clothiers, NYSE Euronext, Raytheon and Sykes Enterprises are the stocks that make the cut in SmartMoney's newest stock screen.
http://www.smartmoney.com/stock-screen/index.cfm?story=7-Stocks-With-Improving-Profit-Margins

After seven months of tracking my 2008 picks -- Wham! -- I went from beating the indices and Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) to being humbled by the market. However difficult it is to display your failings, once again I will share all. This is the low point since I posted the original story Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008.

Only Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) remained in positive territory, down from five stocks that were up in the last report. Sometimes, the reasons for the downslide were more obvious than they were in the cases for my picks. The cutting in half of Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) has been reported often, as the largest independent oil refiner in North America has had its profit margins squeezed.

Loews Corporation (NYSE: L) has been hurt by its insurance interests and helped by its holdings -- a 51% stake in Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. (NYSE: DO) that has been doing well as the world remains desperate for more oil and natural gas.

The gap between the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Standard & Poor's 500 Index and the technology heavy NASDAQ Composite Index is narrower than in the past.

When you watch your kids playing war games on their computers, it must have occurred to you at some point that this might all be part of some grand scheme to get the next generation well-versed in a new set of skills. Hand-to-hand combat (except with their siblings) is out and unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs are in.

The AP (7/20) reported that Raytheon Company (NYSE: RTN) recently unveiled "its new control system for unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs." Raytheon's "Universal Control System,...uses some hardware from the gaming world," and is expected to "shorten training time and help prevent crashes of expensive unmanned drone aircraft by providing a more interactive experience for the pilot." The company focused on "making the system more intuitive -- replacing keystrokes with a game console -- after consulting with experts and discovering that thumbs are the most energy-efficient and accurate way to control an aircraft."

Given Iran's recent missile tests and all the saber rattling that goes on around the world, it should be no surprise that governments have been seeking Raytheon's Patriot Missile technology for years, but RTN is also a leader in a wide range of radar systems, guidance systems, airport monitoring and control systems, and of course the latest in UAV technology.

Before the bell: Futures lower as oil rises, despite Alcoa earnings

Nearly two years after Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) bought YouTube for over $1.6 billion, it seems that it is not the cash cow Google had hoped it could become. Getting ad revenue from YouTube, The Wall Street Journal says, is not an easy task. Despite the site's popularity with surfers, it isn't popular with big corporate advertisers. World-wide revenue from YouTube ads is likely to total about $200 million for the full year, less than Google's expectation. Google has been trying to show it is not a one-trick pony, YouTube was critical in that.

According to The New York Post, "A blind trust run by Mayor Bloomberg is willing to pay between $4.5 billion and $5 billion to buy Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER)'s 20 percent stake in Bloomberg LP."

If you missed it Tuesday, VMware (NYSE: VMW) sank over 24%, taking EMC Corp. (NYSE: EMC) shares down 11% with it. The drop is attributed to two main issues, "VMware's warning that revenue for the current year will fall short of expectations," and doubt "EMC would spin out the remainder of VMware's shares." But this morning, after the abrupt replacement of co-founder and CEO Diane Greene by former Microsoft Corp. official Paul Maritz, Wall Street still doesn't seem to be fully satisfied.

For the first time Monday I heard John McCain comparing Barack Obama to Jimmy Carter. I had heard this before in other arenas, but not from McCain. I guess that despite these two presidential candidates pledging to the American people to bring change and resist politics as usual, they are both, as usual as one could get.

Obama is being shaped by the pressures of running for office and to believe otherwise is delusional. I suppose one has to have hope but the effects of the campaign are becoming clear. Obama has been painting McCain as an extension of Bush, which is nonsense, and now in a typical tit-for-tat response, McCain is filling the air with Carter references.

Both McCain and Obama are wrong in their assessments of their opponents and they are becoming commoners to resort to the bottom of the barrel campaign techniques used in every campaign for most of our nation's proud history. Obama gave up the high ground too easily and McCain has decided he can sling mud with the best of them.

After five months of tracking my 2008 picks, it is rewarding to finally have a breakthrough -- topping the three major stock indices and Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) too. It has been painful to have to report each month that I was being bested. However, since I have not seen anything contradicting my original rationale for my eight picks I stood my ground.

This past month saw great improvement. For the first time since I posted the original story Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008, five of the eight stocks are up:

Moving into positive territory by pennies was Loews Corporation (NYSE: LTR). Among its holdings is a 51% stake in Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. (NYSE: DO) that has been doing well as the world remains desperate for more oil and natural gas.

Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) was the other stock to cross the line into the black, while Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO), although improving, remains my worst performer. It is still down almost 28% after five months.

The gap between the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Standard & Poor's 500 Index and the technology heavy NASDAQ Composite Index narrowed substantially so that the three are tracking each other very closely. Stocks like Apple, Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) continue to gain significantly and their outlooks have not been shaken amid overall pessimistic economic forecasts.

I have not decided who I am voting for yet. Or maybe it would be more accurate to say I have decided on multiple occasions only to become undecided again. While some will see me as fickle, or worse, others may be in the same boat.

I am also continuing to think about what difference any of the candidates can make on the economy, and based on these musings, where to invest. My current belief is that none of them will have a profound impact on our economy.

There are no financial wizards among them. Here is the shocker though: I like all three candidates, or at least can find some good in each of them. Each of them is a fighter, and I believe each one of them brings certain skill sets to the job. There are also things about each candidate that are inescapably negative. Clinton has so much baggage, Zsa Zsa Gabor would be jealous. Obama does not have the experience and he has a degree of arrogance (right sweetie); McCain is an old stick-in-the-mud who, as a long-time senator, has spent more hours with lobbyists than almost anybody, though he is pretending otherwise.

Where does this leave me from an investment perspective? My first choice, for stability with moderate growth and dividends, remains the defense sector. I wrote Defense sector rolls over S&P 500 for 8th straight year a while back and I still think that it is the most secure. Here's why:

A) None of the candidates will want to appear soft on defense when we are at war, and all three have made threatening remarks in some country's direction to make sure the electorate knows that.

B) The War in Afghanistan and Iraq rages on, and even the most optimist view is that a draw-down will take years.

C) Even if all war ceased immediately, the upgrading and replenishment of the hardware will cost billions of dollars and most of the defense contractors have that in their backlogs now. Chasing Value: General Dynamics & Raytheon -- The defense does not rest

When it comes to defense spending over the last nine years, there has not been any rest. As I have reported on numerous occasions, the defense sector has beaten the market indices year after year. This year is no exception and two of my recommendations remain ahead of the market and are reporting new contracts every day.

Today, theThe Arizona Republic reports [registration required] that General Dynamics (NYSE: GD) is to receive billions in contracts for its C4 Systems as part of the Army's extensive modernization plan. The company is building a communications network for the Army and is the lead contractor with Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) for a wireless network that will deliver mobile connectivity to soldiers on the field.

General Dynamics is up about $10 (12.5%) in the last year and offers a 1.5% dividend yield. Its current P/E is 16.5 and its P/S is 1.33 with a 15% ROIC. It opened today at $90.58.